Four Four

Well, I have been pretty busy and playing lots of poker. I went to Siloam Springs last Tuesday and Wednesday. Then I went to Downstream Casino for the MSPT near Joplin, MO Friday and Saturday. Then after not making Day2 I went back to Siloam Springs for the Main Event Sunday. I won the Tuesday tournament but did not do any good in the others. I do feel I am playing well and have been enjoying my time at the tables.

I have also been very busy giving lessons. I gave three lessons today and enjoyed spending some time with my quickly improving students. One of my newer students is improving so quick it is amazing. He actually has been hitting score after score since we started and I expect him to have a killer 2013. Good luck to all of #TeamVariance101 and make sure your IBR is on point and keep improving.

Now I am going to share a hand from the Wednesday night tournament at Siloam Springs Cherokee Casino. In this hand I make a mistake and leak off some chips early and would like to share my mistake to help all of you.


It is 100/200 no ante but there is a catch. It is actually 100/200/25 but our table had a mishap and we paid 25 ante for 15 minutes at 100/200 so we are now playing 15 minutes with no ante at 100/200/25. Nevertheless I am Hj+2 at an 8 handed table and I 2.5x open to 500 with 44 and about 18,000 behind. The cutoff is a decent internet players 3bets to 1275 with 21,000 behind. It then folds around to me and I call with the intention of set mining. In this scenario we need to either fold or set mine if we know we are paying 5% or less of the effective stack size. I have the effective stack at 18,000, so I can afford to call 900 here to hit my set. The call was for 775 more so it was within the price range for a +EV set mine. 

The flop came out 973 rainbow, I checked and the villain bet a curious 1325 into about a 3k pot. I had been playing with this villain for over an hour and I noticed his sizing was smaller than normal. I truly felt his bet size may be due to the fact he was polarized with either a big hand or a missed AK or AQ type hand. My intentions where to fold the flop if a 4 did not land, but after his bet size I decided to float with a plan to check/reevaluate his play on the turn. I thought that I had some showdown value and could have the best hand a decent percentage of the time.

The turn was an 8 and I checked. The villain then bet 2200 into a 5700 chip pot. Again, I felt I had some showdown value and could have the best hand a decent percentage of the time so I chose to call with a plan to check/call most rivers while sticking with my plan to get to showdown as cheap as possible. Obviously I am leaving some room to adjust my plan and reevaluate if his bet sizing or action throws me for a loop.

The river is a J completing a rainbow board of 9738J. I check and the villain bets 4200 into a 10k+ pot. Now I am wanting to sigh fold and am thinking that the J is not a great card and his bet felt like it could be for value as much as it could be a last ditch attempt to win the pot with an overplayed AK or AQ. My plan was to check/call but I am second guessing the decision and thinking about folding. What would you do? Would you have played other streets differently?

Honestly, I think I just got a little to fancy in a spot way to early with no ante. The play is to set mine and fold almost every time we do not hit a set. The only other times we continue should be on other decent flops like 235 for example. I think the play is to fold the flop, and in some cases I am okay with folding pre if we think the villain is good enough to not give us value when we hit a set.

Good luck to everyone, keep improving!

If you are interested in taking poker lessons or would like any information visit http://variance101.com/# or email me at variance101@gmail.com. #TeamVariance101